Hello Movie Lovers,
My name is Jessica. I work in television Post-Production, I received my undergraduate degree in Film Studies from the University of Pittsburgh and I idolize the Oscars. This is my superbowl.
This is my 8th consecutive attempt to use the TLC Method to predict which film will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Whether this is your first time reading about the TLC Method or you are a seasoned fan of the concept, welcome! It means you're taking 15 minutes to yourself to read something that isn't focused on politics. Good for you.
Today, you will read anecdotes about the nominees, the results of the TLC Awards (for which I am the only voting member), and a summary of how I’ve done with my past predictions. The main section focuses on the reviews of each Best Picture Nominee written from the perspective of a 34 year-old mom (me) who is allowing herself the pleasure of being judgemental — in a constructive way. Please allow me to explain.
Anora
Brief Exposition
In 2012, I was dating my now husband, Scott. We’d go to the movies and when it was over he’d asked if I “liked” it. This is a completely valid and normal question, but I found that question infuriating because it pigeon-holed me into a one word reply. I had a lot more to say. I’ve often had a lot of critical notes for movies that I’ve really enjoyed, and have always thought of a movie review as less binary than “good” or “bad”.
As in most relationships, we compromised. Over the next few years, we started asking each other different questions when the movie ended. The first more open-ended question was: What did the movie make you think about? The next day, are you still thinking about it? How long a film lasted in my thoughts became a barometer to me for how well executed it was. Next, was this a funny movie? Do I have to laugh out loud to think something is funny? And lastly, did you really cry? If so, at which part? Was this an emotional film for you?
I noticed a trend: Movies that made me think, laugh, and cry consistently rose to the top of my favorite films. A thesis was born.
I would categorize myself as someone who has high expectations. As our world becomes more diverse, more immersive and more complex, then perhaps the films we praise and give awards to should rise to meet those standards. To meet the high standards of a Best Picture in our complex modern world, I expect a film to make me think, laugh and cry — hence the name, “The TLC Method.”
Nickel Boys
How the rating system works
When you’ve finished watching a film you simply ask yourself if it made you think, made you laugh and/or made you cry and to what degree. When I’m torn about one of those three, I may give a film a half laugh or a half cry. You get the idea. So, if a film made you think, laugh and cry then it is a strong film in the eyes of the TLC Method. Simple as that.
Warning: Spoilers! Do not read past this point if you plan to see the Best Picture Nominees and do not want my perspective to influence your own TLC ratings!
Dune: Part Two
Nominees
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Since 2017, I’ve fulfilled a personal promise to watch every film nominated for Best Picture. This exposes me to films that I would never consider watching, like The Substance (I’ll say more about this in my review). This effort makes me feel challenged and accomplished. And since I’m not a member of any guild or academy (yet), I don’t get free screenings of the films sent to me. I rent, buy and go to the theater, and I’m proud of my effort to do this for myself (as well as for the creators!).
I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of the films and the variety of their stories this year. I hope that someday soon we’ll manage to get through an awards season without World War II being referenced (cough, The Brutalist). Before 2009, only 5 films were expected to be nominated for Best Picture; today, the number of nominated films seems to be trending consistently towards 10. Below you can see how I watched each film and if it took me longer than a single sitting to watch it. I am a full-time working parent, and some of these films are quite long, so sometimes watching one takes two nights. The length of time it took me to watch is not a reflection on a film’s quality, but rather just a consequence of having less time to myself.
Originality
I have been successful and unsuccessful at predicting the Best Picture winner. Each year, I have solicited feedback on the TLC Method and last year, I decided to add another acknowledgement - originality. Moving forward, after watching all of the Best Picture Nominees I plan on acknowledging any film that feels truly original to me. Films from previous years like Parasite, Everything, Everywhere All At Once and Poor Things come to mind. This year the film that earned the originality acknowledgment is The Substance (Again, keep reading for that review). I don’t think that this designation automatically means that it should win Best Picture, but I’m rather curious how often it does or does not connect to the winner. Of course, this is even more subjective, so I’ll do my best to explain why I feel a film deserves this letter and whether or not that is a factor in how it’s ranked.
In the charts above and below, you will see the latest data on how the TLC Method has worked over the years. Of the 64 films nominated in the seven years between 2017–2023, 14 have received a full Think, Laugh, Cry from me. I have correctly predicted the Best Picture twice with Green Book in 2018 and Everything Everywhere All At Once in 2022, although ironically the latter did not receive a full TLC. While I’m personally batting 0.285, the TLC Method has had more success; since 2017, three of the seven winners have had full Think, Laugh, Cry ratings.
The Substance
I did not start acknowledging “Originality” until the 2023 Academy Awards.
The TLC Awards
Dune: Part Two
Top Think
The Substance - It is imprinted on my mind (read the my review)
Top Laugh
Wicked - I smiled just about the entire movie
Top Cry
I’m Still Here - I sobbed just about the entire movie
Top Poster
Nickel Boys
(very close runner-up, The Substance)
Top Scene
A Complete Unknown - The scene when Bob Dylan, played by Timothée Chalamet, sings The Times They Are a-Changin
Top Phrase or Quote
Conclave
“There was one sin which I have come to fear above all others. Certainty. Certainty is the great enemy of unity. Certainty is the deadly enemy of tolerance. Even Christ was not certain at the end…. Our faith is a living thing precisely because it walks hand in hand with doubt. If there was only certainty and no doubt, there would be no mystery and therefore no need for faith. Let us pray that God will grant us a Pope who doubts.”
Unlike these awards, in which I was the only one who voted, the Academy Awards has a unique voting system.
To learn more about how that process works, click the button.
Best Picture Reviews
Anora (½ Think, ½ Laugh, ½ Cry)
I had the thought more than once, why isn't she leaving? However, I don’t feel this film really earned a think from me, which is rare. I’ll explain more in a moment.
I laughed more at it than with it, if that makes sense. So it earned a ½ laugh.
The only cry was at the very end and it was authentic. A real release of emotions. It reminded me of the ending to Call Me By Your Name.
It's really edgy of the academy to nominate a film with this much nudity. It certainly kept my attention in the beginning, but then the nudity stopped and the film became predictable and long. I was waiting and waiting for a twist or a pivot and it never came. It was two dimensional. I didn't learn anything new or have stereotypes challenged. It was really just better written porn without a happy ending. At one point, I had the thought that it was kind of a combination of some nightmares I’ve had - stuck in a life where you need to use sex to earn a living and subjected to immaturity of video game obsessed boys.
All this said, I didn’t “hate” it. Parts were memorable. Acting was great. But I wouldn't watch it again. I’d only recommend it to my film festival going friends. This one is not for the mainstream viewer. I predict it will win no awards at the Oscars.
The Brutalist (Think, Cry)
I thought about the impact on a person when they are forced to leave their home and be separated from their loved ones. I thought about how extreme wealth often leads to a person or family being so disconnected from other people that they may lose their humility. I cried when László learned that his wife was still alive at the beginning.
The first hour was fairly strong, but at the halfway point it started to drift. It is so disappointing to learn that this was not based on a real person’s life. By the end it was literally brutal to watch. This is way too long and the editing was a mess. I don’t know how many times I need to repeat this, but filmmakers, editors, producers please I beg you, listen. If you make me sit in a movie theater for 4 hours I have a 95% chance of leaving that theater with a less favorable view of your film. If you can't tell your story in less than 2.5 hours, then you are not being challenged enough by the other artists around you. The amount of b-roll in this film is insulting. We get it, cars drive on roads and buildings exist in cities. You're actually hurting the message of your story and the quality of the acting when you disrupt the flow with that many pointless exterior shots. This was an annoying, Oscar bait and I don’t support it winning Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing, or Best Cinematography. I hated the way this was shot, the shaky 50 mm lens shots were an overused trope. The only nomination I do support is Adrien Brody’s for Best Actor.
It’s been a while since I’ve gotten to use this phrase, but the rape scene was really a jump the shark moment for me. This film had moments of real potential, but wow did it take a left turn into the gutter with that scene. And after almost killing his wife, is the realization that America hates Jewish people and they have no choice but to go back to Israel? What kind of message is that? The various conclusions were a mess - Erzsébet confronts Harrison alone and then he just disappears? So pointless. Oh also, that fake building is ugly.
A Complete Unknown (Think, ½ Laugh, Cry)
I knew very little about Bob Dylan before watching this and it made me think about folk music and its place in American History. I thought about the desire for creative freedom, the idea of not being placed in a box and forced to stay there. I laughed at Bob’s joke to Sylvie about being god. I teared up a few times throughout his different performances.
This is becoming a popular type of nominated movie. It is not a musical, but rather a biopic of a musician's songs and how it connects to their life. This was one of the better ones in my eyes, because it had a beginning, middle and an end and stayed small. It didn’t try to cover everything. It can't, his breath of work is too large. This focused on Bob Dylan's rise to fame and his desire for freedom to create music the way he wanted to create it in the very early years of his career. While a lot of these types of films end with epic concerts or moments of admiration, this one ended with Bob losing the girl and people booing him off stage for using electronic instruments. I have no idea how true or not true this story is, but it was refreshing to watch. I had lower expectations since I don't know much about his career, and was pleasantly surprised by how many of the songs I knew. It had heart.
I think Timothée Chalamet was wonderful in it and I would be happy to see him and Edward Norton claim their first Academy Awards for Acting - a wild fact given Norton’s lengthy career. This will not win Best Picture.
Conclave (Think, ½ Cry)
I thought about how complex the process is for voting in a new pope and how similar American politics feel to the process. I thought a lot about certainty and faith. (See my Top Quote above). I thought about how awful the interior design was of the rooms and hallways. I don't remember one particular moment that made me cry, but there were several emotional scenes and this earned a ½ cry for me.
What a fascinating narrative. I really appreciated the pacing, the acting and the clear plot. As someone who knows very little of the Roman Catholic Church, I found this easy to follow and incredibly compelling. It quickly became one of my top recommendations this season to those who asked which films were worth watching. Perhaps because I had lower expectations, this one truly exceeded them. The dialogue was fantastic and Ralph Fiennes was at the top of his game. Yes, I immediately googled if this was based on a true story and I guess I shouldn't have been disappointed that it was not. Still its connection to the world of politics can not be ignored. It hit home for me in real ways and the ending was satisfying for me because it landed on kindness and humility.
I will watch this again in the future and I would not object to it winning Best Picture, however I think the chances are slim. Stanley Tucci was robbed of the nomination for Best Supporting Actor in my opinion. I mean come on, is there a role this man can not play? I will be so pleased when the Academy finally rewards him for a lifetime of playing the best supporting characters. I’d like to see Nick Emerson win for Best Editing. I don't think this will win any other awards.
Dune: Part Two (Think)
This film wants you to think about destiny and the predetermined paths of life. It wants you to think about the politics of wealthy families and who really pulls the strings.
The first time I watched Dune 2 was in theaters in March of 2024, so naturally I rewatched it on Netflix to refresh my memory and to compare my thoughts from the first viewing. I read the first Dune book before Dune Part One was released, so I knew a lot of the story going in. This helps a lot. This film is a classic sequel, in that they do very little explanation as to what happened in the first, they assume you know and that makes it feel like an incomplete thought. I wonder if you’d watched this film on its own with zero context, if the film would feel confusing.
In my opinion, this film has no business being nominated for Best Picture. It’s long in the wrong places and short in the wrong places. The editing and writing were lacking. It is beautifully shot (It should win for Best Cinematography), the acting is high quality and the score and production design is on another level, but the writers had an uphill battle with this one. The book is dense and complex. Its certainly a less laughed at interpretation than the 1980s Dune by David Lynch (which I kinda like - bring back the pugs). However, it’s a challenging story to visualize. This is a niche sci-fi story for enthusiasts masquerading as a “mainstream” action film. Personally, I enjoyed it and I’ll likely see it again, but I highly doubt this film will win Best Picture.
Emilia Pérez (Think, Cry)
I thought a lot about how you can respect someone's existence and want them to be happy, but still think they are a bad person. I thought about how a decision can be both genuine and selfish. I cried when her son sang to her about smelling like Papa. Children deserve their parents and that was so hard for me to watch.
This film is an excellent use case for the TLC Method because I can't say that I liked it, but I respect so many elements of it. Zoe Saldana was fantastic - the dancing, singing, acting - I respect her talent so much. I think of her as the main character. I hope she is rewarded for this performance. Overall though, it's very hard to put into words how I felt about this film. It was challenging for me to finish watching. I did not like Emilia. When Emilia hugged her children knowing that they grieved for their father and when she questioned Jessi (her widow) about her love life with her (while Mantas) it became very cringe for me. It was twisted to me that she wanted everything she had prior to transitioning without compromise. So much so that I questioned if she transitioned to avoid the mistakes of her past or if she did it to live an authentic life true to her identity as a woman.
To give this film the benefit of the doubt, I think its goal was to challenge mainstream views of gender and parenthood. If I am being less forgiving, I think this film was a little all over the place (it was also a musical) and the messages were lost. I’m glad to have seen Emilia Pérez, but I won't watch this again. I know it's gotten a lot of buzz, but I just don't see it winning Best Picture. It may win Best International Film.
I'm Still Here (Think, Laugh, Cry)
I thought about the hardship, frustration and pain of a family who loses a husband and a father especially in a way that is not publicly recognized. I thought about the strength of the mother, Eunice Paiva. I was so impressed by her courage and her choices in the aftermath of losing her husband. This was not a laugh out loud comedy, but the laughter and joy from the first half of the film put a huge smile on my face and it earned a laugh rating from me. The trailer pretty much gives away what this is going to be about, so I had a hard time not feeling where this was going, which gave way to tears and a lot of them. It was emotional and as a parent, this was moving for me.
Everything about this was beautiful - the acting, the writing, character development, the pacing of the editing. I am so happy to have seen it. It makes me want to learn about Brazil’s history. I saw this in the theaters by myself and after the film was over I wrote down that I might need to add “Anger” to the TLC Method. It's really rare to feel that much anger and have such a positive reflection on the film. It's a testament to how compelling and well told it was. I really felt everything those characters were feeling. I loved the entire experience and I really wonder if those that saw it had as palpable a reaction as I did. Demi Moore’s performance in The Substance was once in a lifetime. After seeing this though, I am less certain of who the Best Actress award will go to. Fernanda Torres was inspiring and I’d love to see her recognized. I am going to take a large gamble here and say that I am predicting this film to win both Best International Film and Best Picture. This has only happened one other time in Oscar history, in 2019 with Parasite.
Nickel Boys (Think, Cry)
I thought about the perspective of a child. I thought about how they are always looking up to those around them. I teared up a few times, but mostly I cried at the realization that Turner had replaced Elwood in the world.
Watching this film was like watching a poem. The acting was organic and memorable. Its cinematography was avant garde and thought provoking. It was wonderful that I got to see this in the theater. Seeing this type of film on a big screen was easier to follow and to focus on what was happening. It jumped around quite a bit as it was shot from a first person point of view. I did not see the twist ending coming and that made my emotional reaction to it all the more moving. It feels real and also raw. I’m not a consumer of poetry but this visual storytelling was stimulating. I think a new generation of film students will be showing this off to their less cultured friends for decades to come.
I'm not sure I’ll ever see this again, but that's more to do with the challenging subject matter. I do recommend it to others, it was a very well written story. I think the editing was a bit long, but I tend to prefer shorter films. I would be very happy to see RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes win for Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - This is based on a book called The Nickel Boys by Colson Whitehead. I do not think it will win Best Picture.
The Substance (Think, ½ Laugh, and O for Originality)
I thought about how much women (and men) use substances of different types to alter and change their appearances. I thought about how the younger version of yourself steals from the older version of yourself, if you don't respect the balance. I couldn't stop thinking/laughing about how much I hated the bathroom and the layout of this apartment, it was awful. I laughed at the over-the-top ending. I thought about how much some women hate themselves and are so willing to do anything for perceived perfection.
These are the quotes that made me think the most:
“The balance must be respected.” “So respect it!”
“Pretty girls should always smile!”
“It gets harder each time, to remember that you still deserve... to exist! That this part of yourself is still worth something! That you still matter!”
For the rest of my life this film will be in my mind. I will never unsee it, and there is a reason it has earned the Top Think from me this year. The acting was fantastic. The cinematography was in my top 3 for the year. I think it truly accomplished making me think about all the things it wanted me to think about.
That said, I disliked this film very much, and I will never ever watch it again. I feel as though I have earned a trauma badge of honor for watching the entire thing. This is a horror film that focuses on body deformity, gore, and over-the-top shock to imprint on your mind. I very much admire writer and director Coralie Fargeat, who is nominated for Best Director and Original Screenplay, for her insane commitment.
However, at the risk of sounding like I liked it I am going to put forth a very serious warning, this is the most disgusting and most disturbing movie I have ever seen. I am shocked that this is only rated R — it should clearly be NC-17. Actually, I think this film should get a higher rating than just for itself. I hope I’ve given you enough information to make your own decision about watching this, but keep in mind that I don't watch a lot of horror films.
This will not win Best Picture. As of 2024, only one other horror film has ever won. Do you know it?
Wicked (Think, Laugh, Cry)
I thought about the dichotomy of good and evil and the blurred lines between the two. I laughed at the song “Popular” - especially the line, “blonde”. I smiled in joy pretty much the entire film. I shed a few tears at the end of the OzDust Ballroom scene when Elphaba and Galinda danced and when the original Broadway actresses made their guest appearance.
I love this story. As always, I will share my bias (or my perceived bias) when reviewing and I’ve seen this stage production on Broadway and off of Broadway multiple times. I’ve been in love with the music and the original Broadway Cast since I was 16. There was a good chance I was going to love this and Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenowith showing up in Oz solidified the movie's commitment to the Broadway fans in my eyes. Thank you family and friends for not spoiling that one. Everything from its production design, to the live singing, the charismatic choreography and of course Cynthia Erivo absolutely crushing Defying Gravity has me begging for the sequel to arrive as soon as possible. I do think this has a chance of winning Best Picture, but musicals are historically a minority in the Best Picture category, the last musical that won Best Picture was Chicago in 2003. Popular films are also rare to win. Think about the popularity of Barbie last year. That said, this is one of my personal favorites and would be so pleased to see it win. I stand by my full Think, Laugh, Cry rating, but I will also say that if I didn't have such a long standing history with the music and the story, I am not sure it would have earned a laugh and a cry.
Conclave
Best Picture Nominees
(Ranked by their TLC rating)
I'm Still Here (Think, Laugh, Cry)
Wicked (Think, Laugh, Cry)
A Complete Unknown (Think, ½ Laugh, Cry)
Nickel Boys (Think, Cry)
Emilia Pérez (Think, Cry)
The Brutalist (Think, Cry)
Anora (½ Think, ½ Laugh, ½ Cry)
Conclave (Think, ½ Cry)
The Substance (Think, ½ Laugh)
Dune: Part Two (Think)
Who will win? My prediction for the Best Picture winner:
I’m Still Here
The Oscars are Sunday, March 2nd at 7pm EST on ABC and Hulu! Click here to figure out how to watch.
I am very pleased with the quality of films this year and to be able to see more of them in theaters. It was a diverse year and as always, I am excited to watch the Oscars! I am predicting that I’m Still Here will be the big winner, even though Wicked is more popular and was my personal favorite this year.
What did you think of the nominees this year? Was there another film you thought deserved to be nominated? How do your opinions line up with my TLC reviews? Do you think the TLC Method is flawed? I love to read feedback from movie lovers! Thank you for taking the time to read.
Jessica is not affiliated in any way with the Academy Awards.
Jessica does not own nor claim to own the rights to the photographs found in this blog.