Can the TLC Method predict the Best Picture?

Hello Movie Lovers!

This is my 5th consecutive year writing this blog post and I am proud to have completed it this year. There has been a lot going on in life and it's been difficult to find the time! This annual movie binge is something that means a lot to me, so it was important to see it through. If you’ve read my past blog posts then you know that I do this each year to expose myself to movies and stories I would not have otherwise heard or seen. As an artist at heart, this feeds my soul. If you are like me and have a passion for film and enjoy watching the Academy Awards each year, then I invite you to read my brief reviews and use the TLC Method to see if you can predict this year's Best Picture.

In my opinion, today's best films are the ones that tell unique and entertaining stories and tell them well. The TLC Method was invented with this belief in mind. My theory has been that if a film can make you think, laugh and cry then it has a higher probability of being nominated for an award. It is not perfect, but it does take a realistic and easy-to-apply approach to assessing whether or not I’ve enjoyed a movie. Simple as that.

So, here's how it works.

When you’ve finished watching a film you simply ask yourself if it made you think, made you laugh and/or made you cry and to what degree. When I’m torn about one of those three, I may give a film a half laugh or a half cry. You get the idea. So, if a film made you think, laugh and cry then it was a successful film in the eyes of the TLC Method.


Over the last 4 years, I have correctly and incorrectly predicted the Best Picture using the TLC Method. Having multiple years to compare has led me to assess why I felt this method worked and how it can be refined in the future.

For those of you who’ve used the method yourself, what do you think? Did my predictions align with yours? Did you accurately predict the Best Picture winner? 

Currently, I’ve been wondering if perhaps the TLC Method is just wishful thinking - that the most highly awarded film will be the most diverse (in terms of being thought provoking, emotional and funny). There are two trends I see in the last four years: All the winners and predictions have been movies that made me think, but laughter was the only score not required to earn the coveted award of Best Picture.

I have not yet changed my method, so the brief reviews you’ll see below will still reflect the original premise of the TLC Method, but I’m pondering how it could evolve. If you, the reader, have any ideas, please feel free to write to me!


Animation & Best Picture


Along with watching the 10 Best Picture nominees this year, I also watched the 5 films nominated for the top Animated Feature Film. Most years I see a few of them because honestly I love animated movies. However, this year I wanted to spend some time talking about the Animated Feature Film category.

In years past, it has bothered me that this category and the category of Best Foreign Picture are their own separate categories and also eligible for the Best Picture category. In my opinion, the Best Picture category should either be re-named to Best Live-Action Domestic Picture or, more realistically, do away with the Animated and Foreign designations and have there be only one single “Best Picture” category with up to 10 films included. It would certainly help make the Awards Ceremonies shorter!

This is likely a controversial opinion for those who may fall into the different categories, but the reason I bring it up this year is because of how different one of the Animated Feature Film nominees is and how, in my opinion, a few of them may belong in different categories altogether.

This category has existed since 2002, with Shrek winning the first “Animated Feature Film” accolade. This will be the 21st year that the honor has been awarded. As Wikipedia states “An animated feature is defined by the Academy as a film with a running time of more than 40 minutes in which characters' performances are created using a frame-by-frame technique, a significant number of the major characters are animated, and animation figures in no less than 75 percent of the running time.” So yes, all 5 of the films nominated this year fall in line with this categorization. However, it seems wrong to compare Flee to Encanto. These films could not be more different. Encanto is clearly for children, it's a musical, and its core purpose is for entertainment, while Flee comes across much more as a documentary that I would have a hard time sharing with anyone under the age of 13.

Now you might say, that especially this year, the Best Picture nominees are also vastly different from one another (musicals, westerns, thrillers, science fiction, etc) and that leads me to my point. Why can’t an animated film simply be nominated for Best Picture? The short answer, it can. Beauty and the Beast, Toy Story, and Up were all nominated for Best Picture. Why does Flee need to be categorized under animation when its core purpose is not entertainment, its education. Which, in my opinion, is the important core difference between documentaries and all other films. One of my favorite documentaries of all time is the animated film - Waltz with Bashir.

In summary, 4 of the 5 nominees in this category this year are entertaining family-friendly films. It is a fair guess that one of them will win over Flee simply because it is so vastly different from the others. I’d like to see this category done away with and if the Academy wants to highlight the work of animators then have another technical category that highlights the best animation or design that year. Honestly, the artists who draw and animate those films deserve the recognition and if it's worthy of Best Picture overall, then the producer will be recognized too.


Best Picture Reviews
(In order watched, spoilers ahead!)


Dune Movie Poster

Dune
(Think, ½ Cry)

I spent about a year slowly reading the book Dune. I went into this film with high expectations because I loved the book. I saw the film in IMAX when it came out in October 2021. If you like science fiction then you're bound to fall in love with this latest interpretation from director, Denis Villeneuve. The score, the cinematography, the badass women - It's honestly great. It's only real downfall for me, and why it shouldn't win, is that it's half a story. It's an incomplete sentence that ends just as Paul is getting interesting. It was always going to be “Part 1” because the original book is so long, but I just dont think it's worthy of being Best Picture. That being said, I’ve seen it 3 times. I will watch it again. ½ cry for when Duke died. A think for the politics and the unique relationship between a mother and son. 


Don’t Look Up (Think, Laugh, ½ Cry)

I would be so stoked if this won, but I am not sure Hollywood is as woke as Adam McKay. Loved this movie from the very start to the very end. Hysterical mockery of the worst parts of American and Human culture today. It was a dark comedy and I enjoyed it a lot. I even teared up a little at the end as they were having one last meal together. I was so satisfied with the ending - especially with Meryl Streep being eaten by that alien. Oh my god that was satisfying. Way to go Netflix for supporting this film. If it doesn’t win Best Picture, I hope it's awarded with Best Original Screenplay. 


West Side Story (½ Think, ½ Laugh, Cry)

I thought I would be biased for this one. I love West Side Story. In fact, the last show I saw on Broadway before 2020 shut everything down was West Side Story. I’ve seen the original film countless times. So, I thought I’d give it 10s across the board. But unfortunately, I was hugely let down by its lack of originality or modern interpretation. Spielberg made a delightful film. If you’d never heard of it before, you’d say it was well done: well-sung, beautiful choreography, production design and you’d be right, but it felt like a copy. I don't understand why it was made if they weren't going to modernize or update any of the key plot points or elements. I did cry, but that's my bias showing (I love Tony) and I did chuckle, but that also felt like my bias showing because Gee Officer Krupke is one of my favorite ensemble songs ever. This shouldn't really have been nominated for Best Picture, I think we all know that.


The Power of the Dog (Think)

Well, talk about a strange movie. I cringed when I wasn't supposed to and I laughed when I wasn't supposed to. The acting was compelling, the pacing of the story was good, but this Western Thriller was only really interesting the last 20 mins. Without a doubt the best part of this film was its cinematography, which was beyond beautiful. It's between this and Belfast for me for the cinematography category. However, regarding the story itself I kept asking myself.. who reads this and thinks… “this story is relevant and interesting. I'll invest in this.” It's hard to describe, but I just thought it felt pointless. I liked all the actors involved, this is no shot at them. I just don't understand why anyone would want to produce this film. I’ll be very disappointed if this wins since there are a few really outstanding films this year who deserve it more.


Nightmare Alley (Think)

I anticipated this film to be much scarier than it ended up being. There were a few really fascinating scenes, good acting, and the garden scene ending had me hooked for sure, but overall, this was a forgettable film. It was certainly one of the most disjointed Guillermo del Toro films I’ve ever seen. The movie felt like two different movies and not in a good way. Why did we spend so much time with the carnies? The only plot point I enjoyed was the ending when Bradley Cooper’s karma came full circle and he became a carnival geek. That was a great way to tie it together, but if you were thinking “Wow, how original!” Don’t. This is a remake of the 1947 noir film of the same name. This could have been a top film for me, but the editing and story construction really made it too directionless for me to get invested. Sorry Bradley, I won't be recommending this to anyone. 


King Richard (Think, Laugh, Cry)

I was pleasantly surprised by this inspiring sports story. You don’t have to like Richard Willams to appreciate Will Smith’s portrayal of this dedicated and flawed father. I didn't agree with what he was doing all the time, but you saw the core motivations and in just the first 20 minutes of the film I found myself tearing up. I found this story of Tennis phenom’s Venus and Serena Williams to be endearing, heartfelt and captivating. It more than earned its full Think, Laugh, and Cry from me. To my knowledge, if it wins Best Picture, it will be only the fourth “sports film” to ever win the top prize. The last one was Rocky in 1976. I’d really like to see Will Smith win Best Actor for this role. I highly recommend this film.


Belfast
(Think, Laugh, Cry)

Wow, please give Kenneth Branagh the award for Best Director this year. This was hands down my personal favorite of the 10 Best Picture nominees. I had little expectations going in, but I was a little nervous about it being a black and white film. However, the way this story is told, through the lens of a child, during the early years of the Troubles, was delightful - as odd as that is to say. It truly exemplifies all of the characteristics I love most in film. It made me think in a new way (Buddy’s perspective on what was happening around him in Belfast), it made me laugh (Pop’s antics and the adorable candor from Buddy) and it made me cry (Pop’s death, the families hard decision to move away, the ending sentiment to remember all those who lives were changed). It also, visually, made me feel a connection to the past. The brief use of color was such an incredible visual technique which made a time that feels so very long ago feel more relevant and connected to today. Oh and the playful and striking cinematography reminded me of the way Wes Anderson shoots. It really made you see Belfast from Buddy’s perspective. My favorite film of the year does not always coincide with the highest TLC score, but this year it did. We will see if my method works this year.

This line… This line had me in tears:

Pop: Belfast will still be here when you get back.
Buddy: Will you?
Pop: I'm going nowhere you won't find me.


Licorice Pizza
(½ Laugh)

As polite as I can be - this film was not for me. I wanted to like it because I love Haim. The acting wasn’t bad, in fact, it might have been pretty good. But man oh man, was this film random and plot-less. The movie follows the inappropriate love connection of a 15 year old boy with a 25 year old girl during the 70s. It's a bizarre collection of moments from their lives with even more bizarre and pointless cameos. If you love’d the 70s you might like it. I gave it ½ laugh mostly because of the ridiculousness of some of the dialogue. Last thing I’ll say, this might be one of those film you really need to be in the mood for to enjoy. I may feel differently years from now.


Coda
(Think, Laugh, Cry)

Beautiful. Simple. Anyone and everyone can enjoy this story, because it's a story of family, community, and being a teenager who’s embarrassed by their parents. It's relatable on so many levels and yet, it's original. Some of my favorite stories are familiar ones told in new ways. Coda, if you didn't already know, stands for Child of Deaf Adults. This story revolves around Ruby, a hearing capable teenager, who falls in love with singing all while navigating her life with a family who is deaf. I feel similar to this film as I did for King Richard, Belfast and Don’t Look Up - I will be very happy if this film wins Best Picture and I would recommend watching this to anyone who asks.


Drive My Car
(½ Think)

Being honest, I got an hour and 40 mins into this 3 hours film and gave up. I read the remaining plot details on wikipedia and sat down to write this review. This depressing film might be of interest to others, but to me it was a snooze-fest. I felt like giving it another hour of my life was a waste. The only reason I gave this a half think was because of the interesting nature of the main characters' play. So many of the different characters speak different languages and do so during the performance. Do you need to know 5 different languages to attend this play? Do most Japanese people know that many different languages? (seriously asking as a single-language speaking American) This should not win Best Picture.


The Oscars are this Sunday, March 27th at 8pm EST on ABC! I loved that this year’s nominees covered the spectrum of different genres and topics. After last year feeling like a collection of overwhelmingly sad films, it was a welcome change of pace. My personal favorites this year (if you didn’t read the whole blog) are Belfast, King Richard, Coda, Don’t Look Up, and Dune. Three films received Think, Laugh, Cry ratings from me, which might be a first in my experience. So while I am predicting that Belfast will take home the grand prize, I will be happy to see any of the other highly ranked films win. What did you think of the nominees this year? Was there another film you thought deserved to be nominated? How do your opinions line up with my reviews? Do you think The TLC Method is flawed? I always love to hear the feedback from readers, so thank you for taking the time to read. Comment below (no sign-in necessary)!


Best Picture Nominees TLC Ranking

Belfast (Think, Laugh, Cry)
King Richard (Think, Laugh, Cry)
Coda (Think, Laugh, Cry)
Don’t Look Up (Think, Laugh, ½ Cry)
West Side Story
(½ Think, ½ Laugh, Cry)
Dune (Think, ½ Cry)
The Power of the Dog (Think)
Nightmare Alley (Think)
Licorice Pizza (½ Laugh)
Drive My Car (½ Think)